Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1124.482843 1292.378878 1485.288099 1725.262124 2018.479439 2368.630039 2.823789e+03
2024-12-22 879.118393 1087.725003 1352.534077 1720.662353 2231.318150 2934.005745 4.010531e+03
2024-12-29 765.442392 990.507496 1294.442925 1748.470536 2434.871347 3480.200509 5.295785e+03
2025-01-05 660.483117 882.536483 1196.166308 1690.507790 2489.130095 3808.469777 6.356308e+03
2025-01-12 584.559289 801.641879 1119.728537 1644.143402 2541.101808 4134.043000 7.529063e+03
2025-01-19 523.080131 732.830978 1049.700532 1592.359798 2567.525631 4414.693567 8.729424e+03
2025-01-26 499.577964 717.310213 1058.088923 1668.512820 2832.970302 5223.358658 1.151690e+04
2025-02-02 473.449604 694.150484 1050.235636 1713.649241 3048.785701 6001.424805 1.473755e+04
2025-02-09 449.804208 672.043997 1040.671608 1752.904036 3260.782686 6846.916907 1.880940e+04
2025-02-16 421.527948 639.328512 1008.696951 1743.805116 3366.933328 7474.352366 2.273134e+04
2025-02-23 405.796581 625.997297 1008.975385 1797.637594 3627.233069 8618.259609 2.988297e+04
2025-03-02 388.451952 608.149254 998.788885 1828.003060 3839.802143 9726.941004 3.846169e+04
2025-03-09 367.402108 583.416255 975.810613 1833.902793 4011.095099 10859.898416 4.965135e+04
2025-03-16 344.292343 553.292595 939.886774 1807.136343 4095.238587 11775.835147 6.192566e+04
2025-03-23 330.288655 538.319328 931.475996 1840.871072 4357.562052 13526.279179 8.609736e+04
2025-03-30 307.913936 506.004085 885.131554 1778.175623 4321.936839 14072.563762 1.017760e+05
2025-04-06 288.994377 478.782019 846.581548 1728.788762 4315.854893 14765.895766 1.228178e+05
2025-04-13 271.257924 452.573386 807.794905 1673.491267 4278.542427 15313.015159 1.457346e+05
2025-04-20 267.003784 451.885755 822.213238 1754.793641 4717.156077 18622.384696 2.443516e+05
2025-04-27 260.121153 445.488649 823.726412 1803.014512 5062.705081 21846.155625 3.992322e+05
2025-05-04 253.153576 438.367706 822.897912 1844.973874 5404.255065 25512.752705 6.842402e+05
2025-05-11 242.934809 423.976435 804.509808 1835.246330 5545.154906 28028.929660 1.049258e+06
2025-05-18 237.995960 419.986515 809.291459 1892.812881 5985.607827 33577.945601 2.294898e+06